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ONUR: Plain English Strategy Breakdown

Written for You​

This article is for anyone who wants to understand the ONUR strategy without wading through technical docs. I'll explain every part in the simplest language possible. Whether you're a beginner or just want a refresher, you'll walk away understanding this strategy inside and out.

Chapter 1: What Is This Strategy?​

The Short Version​

ONUR is a bot that automatically buys and sells crypto for you. Its core idea: buy when price is rising, then wait to make money or get stopped out.

Like grocery shopping — if apples go on sale (price drops), you buy; if they get expensive (price too high), you don't. This strategy makes that judgment automatically using math formulas instead of eyeballs.

What It Can Do For You​

  • Automatically judge when to buy: Indicators tell you if now is a good entry time
  • Automatically judge when to sell: Takes profits or cuts losses automatically
  • Control your risk: Won't let a single trade blow up your account

What It Can't Do​

  • Guarantee profits: No strategy does
  • Predict the future: Only reads past data
  • Handle black swans: Extreme events break all strategies

Chapter 2: What "Magic Tools" Does It Use?​

Two technical indicators, both are old reliables in trading:

Tool #1: RSI (Relative Strength Index)​

RSI is like a score for a stock, ranging from 0 to 100.

  • Score too low (below 30): People sold too much, might bounce
  • Score too high (above 70): People bought too much, might pull back

ONUR uses 14-day RSI — the classic setting.

Plain English: Imagine you're running. Low RSI = you're too tired and need rest (might bounce). High RSI = you're too excited and need to cool down (might pull back).

Tool #2: Bollinger Bands​

Three lines form a "band":

  • Middle line: Average price over the last 20 periods
  • Upper line: Middle + 2× the normal fluctuation range
  • Lower line: Middle - 2× the normal fluctuation range

Price spends most of its time bouncing around inside this band.

Plain English: Bollinger Bands are like an elastic cage around price. The cage size changes: big price swings = bigger cage, small swings = smaller cage. ONUR uses the 20-period, 2× standard deviation setting — classic.

Chapter 3: When Does It Buy?​

Two conditions, ANDed together (both must be true):

Condition 1: RSI Not Too High (Less Than 74)​

Meaning: It's not a crazy chase moment — there's still room to rise.

Plain English: Like going to a restaurant — you go when it's not packed. If the line is out the door, by the time you eat it'll probably close.

Condition 2: Price Above Bollinger Middle Band​

Meaning: Current price is higher than the 20-period average — trend is up.

Plain English: Like taking an elevator up. You confirm the elevator is going up, not down. If it's going down and you force your way in, you're just asking for a loss.

Real Example​

Say Ethereum is at $2,000:

  • RSI is 65 (< 74, Condition 1 ✅)
  • Bollinger middle band is $1,950, and $2,000 > $1,950 (Condition 2 ✅)

Strategy fires a buy signal!

Chapter 4: When Does It Sell?​

The sell logic is interesting — no active sell searching. Instead, it sets up "barriers" and exits when one is hit.

Barrier 1: ROI Target​

Three profit targets by time:

  • Right after entry: Make 13.1% and sell
  • After 109 minutes (~1.5 hours): Only need 8%
  • After 226 minutes (~4 hours): Only need 3%

Plain English: Like gambling at a casino. Start hoping for a big win (13%). After a while no luck → okay fine, a small win is fine (8%). Keep playing long enough → just don't lose, that's enough (3%).

Barrier 2: Fixed Stop-Loss​

-10%: Lose more than 10% = forced exit.

Plain English: Your floor — like telling a friend "I only brought $100. When it's gone, I go home." Prevents you from chasing losses forever.

Barrier 3: Trailing Stop (Locking in Big Wins)​

This one's advanced:

  • When profit reaches 36.2%, trailing stop activates
  • After that, if price pulls back more than 6.9%, auto-sell

Plain English: Like mountain climbing. After climbing to 362 meters, you clip on a safety rope. As you climb higher, the rope goes up with you. Drop more than 69 meters, the rope catches you and you come down.

Why Are Exit Signals Empty?​

The entry/exit code has nothing in exit signals. The strategy completely relies on the three barriers above to end trades.

Plain English: Like not setting an alarm clock — relying entirely on "I'm hungry" (stop-loss), "made enough money" (ROI), or "made big money, let's protect it" (trailing stop) to end the trade.

Chapter 5: Timeframe​

15-Minute Candles​

Each candle = 15 minutes of price action.

Plain English: Like taking your temperature every 15 minutes and drawing a line. You can see if your "temperature" (price) is trending up or down.

Why 15 Minutes?​

  • Too short (1 minute): Too much noise, lots of false signals
  • Too long (1 hour): Too slow, miss the best entry/exit points
  • 15 minutes: Just right — see the trend and react in time

Chapter 6: Order Types​

Normal Buys/Sells: Limit Orders​

You specify a price. Only executes when market reaches that price.

Plain English: Like buying on Mercari — you offer $100, seller agrees, done. Won't mysteriously pay more.

Emergency Sells: Market Orders​

For emergency sells (like stop-loss), use market orders — fill immediately at whatever the price is.

Plain English: Like rushing to catch a cab — you hop in whatever's available, don't check the meter.

Stop-Loss at the Exchange​

Strategy puts the stop-loss order directly at the exchange, not relying on the bot to monitor. Benefit: works even if the bot is offline.

Plain English: Like giving your will to a lawyer, not keeping it in your drawer. If something happens to you (bot offline), the lawyer (exchange) still executes your wishes.

Chapter 7: Pros​

  1. Simple and clear: Two indicators, clean logic, few lines of code. Easy to modify.
  2. Goes with the flow: Only buys when price is rising, never bottom-fishes. Trend trading wins more often long-term.
  3. Strict risk control: Stop-loss, trailing stop, ROI target — three layers protect your capital.
  4. Highly automated: Set it and let it run. Good for office workers who can't watch all day.
  5. Locks in profits: Trailing stop lets you keep most of your big wins.

Chapter 8: Cons​

  1. Gets beat up in ranging markets: Price bouncing around up and down = frequent buys and sells, each small loss adds up.
  2. Trailing stop threshold too high: Need 36.2% profit to activate — many trades sell before reaching that, missing the trailing benefit.
  3. No active exit signals: Completely passive. If trend suddenly reverses, you wait for stop-loss to trigger.
  4. RSI threshold too loose: RSI < 74 is pretty permissive — might buy when RSI is already 70.
  5. Long-only: Only buys on the way up. Can't profit from falling prices.

Chapter 9: How to Improve It​

Improvement 1: Add Volatility Filter​

Bollinger Bands have a "bandwidth" concept. If bandwidth is too narrow, market is ranging — don't trade.

# Only trade if bandwidth > 4%
& (dataframe['bb_width'] > 0.04)

Improvement 2: Add Exit Signals​

Currently all passive — add active exit conditions.

# Sell if RSI > 85
(dataframe['rsi'] > 85)

Improvement 3: Lower Trailing Stop Threshold​

From 36.2% down to ~15% — more trades can use trailing stop protection.

Improvement 4: Add Volume Confirmation​

# Volume must be > 1.5× average
& (dataframe['volume'] > dataframe['volume_sma'] * 1.5)

Improvement 5: Multi-Timeframe Confirmation​

Only buy on 15-minute when 1-hour or 4-hour trend is also up.

Chapter 10: Who Is This For?​

Good Fit​

  1. Beginners: Simple strategy, few lines of code, easy to understand and modify
  2. Office workers: Set it and let it run automatically
  3. Trend traders: Don't like bottom-fishing, only follow trends
  4. Patient people: Strategy needs time to accumulate profits

Not Good Fit​

  1. Get-rich-quick seekers: This strategy is steady, not a money printer
  2. Frequent traders: Moderate frequency, not super high
  3. Bottom-fishers: Strategy doesn't catch falling knives
  4. Risk-averse: Despite stop-loss, can still lose money

Chapter 11: Practical Tips​

Step 1: Backtest​

Before real money, test on historical data.

freqtrade backtesting --strategy ONUR --timerange 20230101-20231231

Step 2: Paper Trade​

Good backtest ≠ good live. Run paper trading for a while.

Step 3: Start Small​

When going live, use small money. Add more once confirmed.

Step 4: Regular Check-Ins​

Weekly or monthly check strategy performance. If it's not working on a pair, switch pairs or adjust parameters.

Step 5: Mental Preparation​

Quantitative trading isn't risk-free. You might see consecutive losses or big drawdowns. Be mentally ready — don't panic when losing.

Chapter 12: Risk Warnings (Must Read!)​

Risk 1: Strategy May Expire Every strategy has a lifespan. One that worked last year might not work this year. Markets change, strategies must adapt.

Risk 2: Black Swan Events Extreme events (exchange collapses, sudden regulations) can cause huge losses no strategy can avoid.

Risk 3: Technical Failures Bots can go down, networks can disconnect, exchanges can have maintenance. All affect execution.

Risk 4: Over-Optimization If you tune parameters too perfectly to historical data, live performance might suffer. This is "overfitting."

Risk 5: Improper Capital Management Even the best strategy, if you bet everything on one trade, one loss can wipe you out.

Chapter 13: Summary​

Core Logic​

One line: RSI not too high + price above middle band = buy, then wait for ROI or stop-loss = sell.

Key Parameters​

  • Timeframe: 15 minutes
  • Buy: RSI < 74 AND Close > Bollinger Middle Band
  • Stop-loss: -10%
  • Trailing stop: Activates at 36.2% profit
  • ROI: 13.1% → 8% → 3% (decreasing by time)

Final Advice​

  1. Don't blindly trust any strategy, including this one
  2. Backtest → paper trade → small live, step by step
  3. Review regularly for needed adjustments
  4. Control risk — never bet everything on one trade
  5. Keep learning — markets change, you must evolve too

Happy trading!