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ONUR Strategy Analysis

Table of Contents​

  1. Strategy Overview and Design Philosophy
  2. Technical Indicator Details
  3. Entry Logic Deep Analysis
  4. Exit Logic and Risk Control
  5. Timeframe and Order Management
  6. Strategy Advantages Analysis
  7. Strategy Risks
  8. Parameter Optimization
  9. Live Application Advice
  10. Strategy Improvement Ideas
  11. Summary and Outlook

1. Strategy Overview and Design Philosophy​

1.1 Strategy Positioning​

ONUR is a medium-to-short-term quantitative trading strategy based on a technical indicator combination of RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Bollinger Bands. Its core design philosophy uses the synergistic combination of RSI and Bollinger Bands to capture trend continuation opportunities in markets.

The strategy timeframe is set to 15 minutes — long enough to filter noise yet short enough to capture relatively short price movements. This makes it neither trapped by minute-level noise nor missing medium-term opportunities.

1.2 Core Design Philosophy​

ONUR's philosophy can be summarized as "follow the trend, strict risk control." Following the trend is reflected in its entry conditions: price must be above the Bollinger middle band, confirming an uptrend. RSI below 74 avoids entering at overbought levels.

Strict risk control is shown in its stop-loss and trailing stop mechanisms. A 10% fixed stop sets a clear maximum loss boundary per trade. The trailing stop, once activated, moves upward with price, locking in partial profits. This "let profits run, cut losses short" philosophy is a long-validated success principle in quantitative trading.

1.3 Applicable Scenarios​

ONUR is best suited for cryptocurrency trading pairs with moderate volatility without extreme price movements. RSI < 74 as the entry threshold is relatively loose, meaning higher entry frequency — suitable for investors wanting to maintain some trading activity.

2. Technical Indicator Details​

2.1 RSI Deep Dive​

RSI (Relative Strength Index), developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. in 1978, measures price change speed and magnitude:

RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS))
RS = Average Upward Change / Average Downward Change

ONUR uses standard 14-period RSI. Traditional interpretation:

  • RSI > 70: Overbought — price may pull back
  • RSI < 30: Oversold — price may rebound

ONUR uses 74, not the traditional 70. Analysis:

  • Using 74 rather than 70 means a looser "overbought" definition, resulting in more entry opportunities
  • On 15-minute charts, RSI touching 70-74 is common
  • 74 provides a 4-point "buffer"

This is an "exclusion" condition, not a "confirmation" condition — the strategy doesn't require RSI to be in a specific zone (like oversold), only that it's not too high.

2.2 Bollinger Bands​

Bollinger Bands parameters: standard 20-period window, 2× standard deviation:

Middle Band = 20-period SMA
Upper Band = Middle + 2 × Standard Deviation
Lower Band = Middle - 2 × Standard Deviation

Bollinger Bands' core value is dynamic volatility adaptation. When volatility increases, bands automatically widen; when volatility decreases, bands narrow.

ONUR's entry condition uses only the middle band — price must be above it. This means: only enter when in an uptrend, refuse to "catch falling knives," follow "trend continuation."

The upper and lower bands, while calculated, are not directly used in entry/exit — kept for future extension potential.

2.3 Synergistic Effect​

RSI + Bollinger Bands combination:

  • RSI: identifies overbought/oversold with clear numerical thresholds
  • Bollinger: dynamically adapts to volatility, provides trend direction
  • Together: "direction confirmation + timing optimization"

3. Entry Logic Deep Analysis​

3.1 Entry Conditions​

ONUR's entry is extremely simple — two AND conditions:

Condition 1: RSI < 74
Condition 2: Close > Bollinger Middle Band

Both must be met to trigger a buy signal.

Condition 1: RSI < 74

Why 74?

  • Traditional 70 might filter too many valid entries on 15-minute charts
  • 74 allows more chances while avoiding extreme overbought
  • It's a risk filter, not a timing selector

Condition 2: Close > Bollinger Middle Band

The Bollinger middle band is a 20-period SMA. Price above it means:

  1. Current price above the average of past 20 periods
  2. Short-term trend is upward
  3. Recent buyers have the advantage

3.2 Entry Signal Characteristics​

Trend Confirmation Priority: Won't try to "bottom fish" during price drops — requires price to show upward momentum. Better for trending markets, more false signals in ranging markets.

High Entry Frequency: RSI < 74 AND price > middle band = fairly easy to satisfy on 15-minute charts.

No Precision Entry: Doesn't require RSI in oversold zone or price touching lower band — more focused on overall trend direction than precise entry price.

4. Exit Logic and Risk Control​

4.1 Exit Conditions​

populate_exit_trend has no valid exit conditions — all exits depend on:

  1. ROI target achievement
  2. Trailing stop trigger
  3. Fixed stop-loss trigger

This is a "passive exit" strategy.

4.2 ROI Configuration​

minimal_roi = {
    "0": 0.131,    # Immediate: 13.1%
    "109": 0.08,   # 109 minutes: 8%
    "226": 0.03    # 226 minutes: 3%
}

Three-tier decreasing targets:

  • Immediately after entry: target 13.1% — capture big moves when trends are strong
  • After 109 minutes: drop to 8% — close faster if trend isn't developing quickly
  • After 226 minutes: only 3% — any profit is acceptable, don't be greedy

4.3 Stop-Loss Mechanism​

Fixed Stop-Loss: -10% (stoploss = -0.10)

Trailing Stop Configuration:

trailing_stop = True
trailing_stop_positive = 0.293
trailing_stop_positive_offset = 0.362
trailing_only_offset_is_reached = True
  • Only activates after 36.2% profit
  • Then allows ~6.9% pullback (36.2% - 29.3%)
  • Locks in most gains once significant profit is achieved

4.4 Exit Priority​

  1. Fixed Stop-Loss: Always highest priority, -10% triggers immediate close
  2. Trailing Stop: After activation, price pullback > 6.9% triggers close
  3. ROI Target: When profit reaches current-stage target
  4. Exit Signal: Not used in this strategy

5. Timeframe and Order Management​

5.1 15-Minute Timeframe Analysis​

Advantages:

  • Moderate trading frequency
  • Catches major intraday price movements
  • RSI and Bollinger work well on 15-minute charts

Challenges:

  • Sensitive to intraday sentiment
  • Requires more frequent monitoring
  • Slippage impact more noticeable

5.2 Order Type Configuration​

order_types = {
    "buy": "limit",
    "sell": "limit",
    "emergencysell": "market",
    "forcebuy": "market",
    "forcesell": "market",
    "stoploss": "market",
    "stoploss_on_exchange": True,
    "stoploss_on_exchange_interval": 60,
    "stoploss_on_exchange_limit_ratio": 0.99,
}

Regular orders use limit orders for price control and slippage protection. Emergency operations use market orders for fast execution. Stop-loss is placed on the exchange (stoploss_on_exchange = True) for reliability.

6. Strategy Advantages​

6.1 Simple and Effective Logic​

Only two indicators (RSI and Bollinger), two entry conditions — easy to understand, maintain, and modify.

6.2 Reasonable Risk System​

Three-layer protection: fixed stop-loss, trailing stop, and stepped ROI.

6.3 Trend-Following Philosophy​

"Buy the dip" approach rather than "catch the knife" — proven more reliable long-term.

6.4 Psychological Ease​

Trend following reduces emotional burden compared to counter-trend trading.

7. Strategy Risks​

7.1 Ranging Market Risk​

Frequent false signals and consecutive small losses in sideways markets.

7.2 Trailing Stop Threshold Too High​

Requires 36.2% profit before trailing activates — many trades won't reach this.

7.3 No Active Exit Signals​

No mechanism to actively respond to trend reversals — relies entirely on passive triggers.

7.4 RSI Threshold Too Loose​

RSI < 74 may result in entries at already elevated levels (RSI 65-74 range).

8. Parameter Optimization​

8.1 RSI Parameters​

  • Period: try 7-10 for more sensitivity or 20-25 for more stability
  • Threshold: adjust 65-80 based on market conditions

8.2 Bollinger Parameters​

  • Period: try 10-15 for faster response or 25-30 for more stability
  • Standard deviation multiplier: try 1.5-2.5 range

8.3 Stop-Loss & ROI​

  • Fixed stop: adjust 7-15% based on pair volatility
  • Initial ROI: consider 10-15% range
  • Trailing threshold: consider lowering from 36.2% to ~15%

9. Live Application Advice​

9.1 Best Market Conditions​

  • Clearly trending markets
  • Moderate volatility
  • High-liquidity pairs

9.2 Worst Market Conditions​

  • Severe oscillation
  • Rapid downtrends
  • Extreme events

9.3 Capital Management​

  • Single trade risk: 2-3% of total capital
  • Run 3-5 pairs simultaneously
  • Weekly/monthly performance reviews

10. Strategy Improvement Ideas​

10.1 Add Volatility Filter​

& (dataframe['bb_width'] > 0.04)  # Bollinger bandwidth filter

10.2 Add Exit Signals​

def populate_exit_trend(self, dataframe, metadata):
    dataframe.loc[
        ((dataframe['rsi'] > 85) | (dataframe['close'] < dataframe['bb_lowerband'])),
        'sell'] = 1
    return dataframe

10.3 Volume Confirmation​

& (dataframe['volume'] > dataframe['volume_sma'] * 1.5)

10.4 Multi-Timeframe Confirmation​

Add 1h or 4h trend confirmation via informative pairs.

11. Summary and Outlook​

ONUR is a clean, minimalist trend-following strategy. Core traits:

Simplicity: Two indicators, two entry conditions — easy to understand and deploy.

Trend-Oriented: Only looks for long opportunities in uptrends, avoids bottom-fishing.

Multi-Layer Risk Control: Three-tier protection (fixed stop, trailing stop, stepped ROI).

Passive Exit: No active exit signals — relies on risk management mechanisms.

Best For: New traders, office workers, trend enthusiasts, patient investors.

Not For: High-frequency traders, bottom-fishers, risk-averse investors.

ONUR provides an excellent starting point for quantitative trading beginners. However, any strategy needs adaptation to market conditions, personal risk tolerance, and capital. Before going live, backtest extensively and paper trade to verify.

Document Version: 1.0 Strategy Source: Freqtrade Community Last Updated: 2024